A bit late to this excellent podcast episode where @chudson chats w @TurnerNovak re the preseed / seed market; recommended for anyone in the early investing space. Felt it was one of the more honest conversations about how seed / venture actually works right now, not how it's supposed to work. Hard to easily distil / summarise as a lot of the value is often contextual rather than immediately actionable. Well worth the listen / read to understand how the US seed market evolved and what we are lik

Nassim Taleb asked a room full of quants: to trust an average, a normal bell curve needs ~30 data points. how many does an 80/20 "fat-tailed" world need?people guessed 200. 1,000. the real answer: 100 trillion.that's 10¹⁴ - because in fat-tailed data, one rare event dwarfs everything else, and until it shows up your sample is a lie. "you observe, you observe, you observe… until the crash."worse, the deception only runs one way. a wild distribution can disguise itself as calm - a calm one can't f