Repeated rounds of stormy weather loitering off the Southeast coast could do more than just dampen fireworks celebrations in Florida this weekend – there’s a good chance it becomes hurricane season’s next named storm.

The National Hurricane Center increased its odds that a tropical system could develop near Florida late this week or early next week as forecasters expect a wet July 4 weekend for South Florida.

While water temperatures are warm enough in the Gulf to support tropical development, Saharan dust and wind shear could keep tropics quiet .. sort of.