The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool places the chance of a .25 rate cut in September at 86.4%. If this week’s July CPI report comes above the June pace of 2.72% year over year, the cost of essentials like groceries, gas, and rent will remain stubbornly high.

If long-term Treasury yields stay elevated as the Fed resumes its monetary policy easing this year, higher consumer interest rates may persist at a time when credit delinquencies are rising.